Assessing the Donald Trump Show’s impact on markets will likely remain a top priority for most investors this week. For one desperate trader, however, the next few days are about all something else entirely: Apple’s earnings.
We first met F.S. Comeau back in April, when we interviewed the 30-something from Montreal for a story about WallStreetBets, a Reddit forum that rose to prominence over the past year for its irreverent and gun-slinging approach to playing markets.
Count Comeau among those that have experienced the lofty peaks and painful valleys of the group’s high-risk approach to trading. In fact, one particularly tough stretch landed him in the hospital with stress-related issues. That’s what hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of losses can do to a guy.
This Tuesday, he vows, will mark his last and boldest attempt to erase losses and reach market riches. In WallStreetBets lingo, his Apple
bet — and our call of the day — is his “final YOLO.” For you non-millennials, that’s “you only live once!”
So what does Comeau do for his swan song?
Basically, he is using what’s left of his stash to bet big against Apple by buying put options that, according to Comeau, could net him upwards of a few million if his prediction holds true. But if Apple, which currently sits near $122, trades at $128 or above after the report — poof! — all gone.
Here’s a look at the trades:
Comeau is nothing if not confident — maybe too confident in this moonshot, although that tends to play rather well among the WallStreetBets crowd.
“IT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE FOR APPLE TO SPIKE UP POST-EARNINGS,” Comeau wrote. “It didn’t happen to Google
, it didn’t happen to Western Digital
or even Intel
or Microsoft (2%! Yay!)
, despite excellent earnings (which Apple won’t have).”
Famous last words?
Go here for his entire 5,000-plus word post explaining why he’s quitting trading for good, how “the stock market is rigged” and how a drop of at least 20% in Apple shares on Wednesday will earn him back the fortune he’s lost in the trading pits. The iPhone maker is due to post its quarterly results late Tuesday.
Some called Comeau out for a being fool, others snickered and wished him luck, and then there were several others who bought into the concept of the trade.
“Maybe I’m an idiot, but after reading that entire post, I’m in for some Apple puts,” writes OcculusResurrectio. “Not YOLO-ing, but the logic is pretty sound.”
So, we’ll check back in with Comeau and the rest of the WallStreetBets crew on Wednesday morning, but for now let’s take a look at what traders should keep an eye on after the mayhem of the last few days. Stocks are under pressure so far.
Key market gauges
is slipping through that 20K level in early action and the S&P
are moving lower premarket. Gold
is getting a slight lift on all the uncertainty. Japan
closed down, while other Asian markets stayed closed due to the Lunar New Year holidays. Europe
is struggling. See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.
“Wall Street hocus-pocus has done an awesome job,” says Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog. He’s talking about how the Dow industrials
managed to finally top the 20,000 mark despite one little problem: Revenue for the blue chips overall hasn’t been this poor since back in 2010, as you can clearly see by this chart:
It’s more than just the oil crunch, too.
“Actual revenues, as reported under GAAP, over time, are obscured the best way possible, just as magicians obscure their sleight of hand by distracting their audience with some flashy moves,” Richter explains. “This relentless and eager focus on Wall Street hocus-pocus explains in part why the DJIA has soared 73% over the five years to 20,000 even as aggregate revenues, despite the delirious acquisition binge, have been mired down in a sea of stagnation.”
Huge week for earnings, with about a fifth of the S&P 500
set to release their results. We already know about Apple, but we’ll also hear from Exxon Mobil
on Tuesday, Facebook
on Wednesday and Amazon
on Thursday, to name just a few.
is down 29% after Mattress Firm terminated contracts with the company.
said it had to cancel 150 domestic flights on Sunday due to computer glitches. Flights are supposed to be up and running Monday, though some cancellations may still happen, the airline said in a tweet.
Only 109 people out of 325,000 were detained and held for questioning. Big problems at airports were caused by Delta computer outage,…..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 30, 2017
The January jobs report is the big number to watch this week, but we won’t get that until Friday. Before that, the Fed meets midweek, and we’ll get some sales figures from the auto sector.
As for today, consumer spending rose 0.5% in December, the savings rate dropped to the lowest level since 2014, but inflation is on the up.
Still to come, pending-home sales.
“I work on Wall Street and live on Long Island. I am surrounded by people who can’t recognize how recently their own ancestry and ethnicity would have been a problem for them. Are you one of them? If so, I hope this hits close enough to home so as to awaken you from your contented slumber” — Josh Brown, in a post at his Reformed Broker blog.
Of course, Brown was just one of many speaking out against the ban. Here’s how leaders from the tech sector have responded.
10,000 — That’s how many refugees Starbucks
plans on hiring worldwide over the next five years. CEO Howard Schultz said the coffee giant will offer jobs to those who served as interpreters or support personnel for U.S. troops overseas. “We have a long history of hiring young people looking for opportunities and a pathway to a new life,” he said.
One guy apparently had a real problem with that:
These are the books everybody was reading at inauguration time of every U.S. president going all the way back to Eisenhower.
Celebrities set aside politics for one night at the SAG Awards. Just kidding.
24 times Muslims on the internet told it like it is.
Sanctuary cities are safer and more productive.
One Iranian Google employee’s perspective on the ban.
Read the viral tweetstorm tale behind this picture:
Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.